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But a in a special election for the in early September sent a startling message for looming general elections for statewide offices and the House of Delegates in November.

Fairfax County Supervisor defeated Republican by 72,697 votes — a margin of 49.75 percentage points — according to unofficial results from the Virginia Department of Elections.

With turnout almost reaching about 26% of registered voters, Walkinshaw overperformed by every measure — in-person early voting, absentee mail-in ballots and the Republicans' preferred method of showing up to vote on Election Day, on which he surpassed Whitson by almost 40,000 votes.

"It's exactly what we hope November looks like," said Virginia Democratic Party Chairman Lamont Bagby, a state senator from Henrico County.

But the outcome also might reach beyond elections for governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general into 2026, when members of Congress face re-election in races likely to be dominated by President Donald Trump's policies.

"If I'm a member of the House of Representatives or Senate and I'm a Republican, I'd be worried," said Chris Saxman, a former Republican delegate who leads Virginia FREE, a statewide business organization.

Rep. Rob Wittman, R-1st, an 18-year veteran who represents parts of the Richmond area, has never won any of his 10 terms in Congress by less than 10 percentage points.

But 10 Democratic candidates are seeking to challenge him, including Henrico County Commonwealth's Attorney Shannon Taylor, who declared her candidacy this week. Three Democrats, so far, have filed candidacies, hoping to challenge Rep. Jen Kiggans, R-2nd, another prominent target of national Democrats.

Richmond political analyst Bob Holsworth said the Democratic showing in the 11th "is going to send reverberations nationwide, more so than the governor's race."

Walkinshaw's victory margin was more than 15.5% higher than the margin by which Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris carried the district against Trump last fall. Trump actually improved his performance in Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William counties in 2024, when he lost the state by about 6 percentage points, compared with 2020, when he lost by 10.

"The gains that enabled Trump to shift his margin from 10 to 6 were erased," Holsworth said.

Larry Sabato, president of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, had much the same reaction.

"It's certainly a good sign for Democrats, not just for the November elections, but going into 2026," Sabato said on Election Night. "You look at the margins, they tell you something. They tell you which party is more motivated."

Virginia Republican Party Chairman Mark Peake, a state senator from Lynchburg, said the margin of Walkinshaw's victory had everything to do with the Democrat's former boss, the late Rep. Gerry Connolly, D-11th, who died in May in his 10th term in Congress.

"It was a tribute victory and a show of respect for Representative Connolly," Peake said Wednesday. "You had a long-term aide whom Connolly had endorsed on the ballot. It was the final farewell to Connolly."

Former Rep. Tom Davis, R-11th, said the "overwhelming margin" of Walkinshaw's victory had everything to do with the effects of Trump's attacks on the federal workforce and contractors who underpin the Northern Virginia economy.

"Republicans' worst fears were realized," Davis said. "It is not a pleasant place to run as a Republican."